MAF760 – International Finance
Trimester 1, 2020
The total mark of this assignment is 100, which comprises 20% of the assessment for this unit.
Due date: 11:59 pm AEST 9 April 2020
(Please note that I have changed the due date from 7 April to 9 April 2020)
• This is an individual assignment.
• Only one assignment per student needs to be submitted online in Cloud Deakin.
• The electronic copy of the assignment has to be uploaded to CloudDeakin by the due date. If you
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• You are to hand in a (word) document that lists the number and part of each question (e.g.
a., b.(I.)) followed by your answer. Do not repeat the question. Use size 11 font.
• Make sure that your assignment is well presented. Provide the appropriate Excel output and graphs in
your assignment report. Make sure that all your graphs and tables are clearly labelled.
4/3/2020 54262 – MAF760 – International FinanceTrimester 1, 2020ASSIGNMENT
• Contact a staff member if you have any further queries regarding the assignment.
Foreign exchange rate distribution, and forecasting
You have recently been employed as a financial analyst in a major Investment bank in Australia to advise
on the trading strategy for investing in the Australian dollar. You have been trained in the importance of
foreign exchange rate forecasting stemming from the fact that the outcome of the bank’s decision taken
now is contingent upon the value of the exchange rate prevailing sometime in the future, which you aim to
forecast with utmost accuracy.
The bank’s decisions pertain to a variety of activities, including speculation, hedging, investment,
financing, pricing and strategic planning. Your forecast also feeds into the Technical Analysis and
Mechanical Trading Rules Department of the bank which reports buy and sell signals.
Your first assignment is to perform a thorough analysis using the foreign exchange rate between
Australian and the US, S(USD/AUD). You note that the exchange rate is expressed in the indirect
quotation from the Australian perspective. Using your skills, knowledge, training, and experience perform
the following tasks:
a. Draw continuously compounded returns of S(USD/AUD) graphically which can extract information on
the distributional characteristics of the returns. What kind of distribution features you find.
b. Using 68–95–99.7 normal rule of thumb, provide evidence that the distribution of the returns of
S(USD/AUD) is different from the normal.
c. Compare artificially (normally) created returns data with that of the actual returns with a valid graphical
presentation. What characteristics of the returns do you look for to gauge differences in the two returns?
d. What is your assessment for the directional move of S(USD/AUD) the next day based on your intuition
and then based on a valid statistic?
e. How would you convince your team to advise the client on whether to invest or not to invest in
S(USD/AUD) for the next 30 days? Your argument must be based on an acceptable hypothesis testing
f. What can you say about the efficiency of the FX market? Base your discussion on the following task:
• Estimate the following models for S(USD/AUD):
i. ???????? =????+????????, Random Walk Model (RWDM)
ii. ???????? =????+????????????-1 +????????, Autoregressive of order 1 (AR(1)) model Note: Use last
100 trading days’ data: first 90 observations for estimation window
and the last 10 observations for the holdout period.
• Compute the individual forecasts and composite forecasts of S(USD/AUD) from the above models in the
holdout period. Use regression method for weights in composite forecasts. Present the forecasting
accuracy measures of MAE, MSE, and RMSE for forecasts. Report the best model for the forecast.
g. Perform a risk assessment analysis for the next 100 days for the USD1 million invested in AUD in
terms of 1% VaR with historical, parametric, and simulated methods. What are the risk implications for
your investments daily?
h. Video presentation. (Not more than 2 minutes)
• What implications do you draw about the International Finance’s key variable exchange rate for its
distributional characteristics and its market efficiency?
Data source: http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/historical-data.html#exchange-rates. The sample period is
beginning in January 2003 to current. The data frequency is daily.
Marking rule: Refer to the marking rubric for details on how this assessment will be marked
Hints: Continuously compounded returns are defined as the ratio of log(et/et-1)*100, where e is the
exchange rate. In part b, you can use the “SUMPRODUCT( )” function in Excel to look for the
observations that are within a certain range.
Use Microsoft Excel for computations.
——————–END OF ASSIGNMENT————
The post MAF760 – International Finance.
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