To that end, it needs to estimate the likely demand of the rail services on offer and the revenues that can be generated. The rail services in question are passenger services and freight services.
Demand for passenger services is thought to depend on two major factors; the Train Travel Propensity index (TTP, an aggregate measure of a number of factors that influence passenger demand) and changes in the general economic environment, usually measured as changes in the regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Data for those two factors together with the realised passenger demand over the past 5 years is given in table 1.
Demand for freight services is more straightforward in this particular line; an automotive company based on the central Midlands has a contract with the incumbent train operating company that absorbs almost all of the lines’ freight capacity; the contract expires in 15 years from now and Midlands Rail intents to honour the agreement as it currently stands. The freight demand over the past 5 years is also given in table 1.
Table 1: Historic rails services demand
|Year||Quarter||Passengers||Train Travel Propensity (TTP)||GDP change (%)||Freight Tonnage (000s)|
The first goal of Midlands Rail is to create a forecast of demand for passenger and freight services (freight tonnage transported) for the next 5 years, under three scenarios; Base, High demand and Low demand:
The forecast values for both the High and Low demand scenarios can be calculated by applying the following percentage changes to demand values and possible explanatory factors of the Base Scenario:
Table 1: Uplift parameters to Base values for the Low and High scenarios
|High Demand||Low Demand|
|Year||TTP||GDP (%)||Freight||TTP||GDP (%)||Freight|
Note: For GDP, replace the base assumption with the one provided in this table.
Midlands Rail second goal is to estimate the likely revenue under these scenarios and use this information in selecting the optimal strategy to adopt for the Year 6 to Year 10 period. To do so, it estimated that the average ticket price per passenger is £34 and that the revenue generated per thousand tonnes of freight is £310 (all values are in real prices, meaning that inflation is already taken into account). The company also identified that the line is currently close to maximum capacity. As the situation currently stands, the line cannot serve more than 30,000 passengers and 2,550,000 tonnes of freight per quarter and any demand above these limits will be unmet and thus generate no revenue (the passenger and freight capacity constraints are independent of each other). Due to these capacity constraints, Midlands Rail is considering three possible courses of action:
In all instances, the cost of capital of Midlands Rail is 0.52% per quarter.
Additionally, Midlands Rail would also like to explore the sensitivity of the initial results to the following changes:
The analysis required for this assessment can be divided into three parts. First, you need to create a model that forecasts passenger and freight demand for the different scenarios, using all the relevant information provided by the case study. Secondly, you need to utilise (and adjust when necessary) the demand forecasts in order to estimate the likely revenues for the three options that Midlands Rail is considering, again taking into account the different demand scenarios. Thirdly, you need to make adjustments to your primary data as necessary and carry out the required sensitivity analysis.
This assignment has two outputs: the Excel model that you used to generate the required forecasts and explore the decision problem, and a report that summarises your findings.
Of the two, the output that carries the most weight is the Excel model. As well as being factually correct, the model should ideally be clearly labelled, have a good ‘flow’ and a clear audit trail. Remember to use best practice (clear formatting, label your inputs and outputs, don’t be afraid to add notes, no hardcoded values, document your assumptions and your logic, keep your data separate from your calculations, have a separate area to document important outputs).
The report should either be a Word document or a PowerPoint presentation (I have no preference). The written output should describe and analyse the forecasting and decision problem, describe your modelling process and the criteria you used for the analysis, summarise any interesting findings from your analysis and present your recommendations. This is a technical piece of writing, so the use of tables and/or charts to summarise and present data is strongly advisable. Use a readable font and neutral colours and always keep readability in mind. There is no word limit for the report but it should not exceed 6 pages (including tables and graphs); if you opt to produce a PowerPoint presentation instead, it should not exceed 10 slides.
The post Midlands Rail is a train operating company and is preparing a bid to take over the operation of the Southampton-Birmingham train line for the next 5 years. appeared first on Best Custom Essay Writing Services | EssayBureau.com.
We always make sure that our academic writers follow all your instructions precisely. You can choose your academic level and we will assign a writer who has a respective degree.
We have a team of professional writers with experience in academic and business writing. Many are native speakers and able to perform any task for which you need help.
If you think we missed something, send your order for a free revision. You have 10 days to submit the order for review after you have received the final document.
All papers are always delivered on time. In case we need more time to master your paper, we may contact you regarding the deadline extension. Otherwise a 100% refund is guaranteed.
We use several writing tools checks to ensure that all documents you receive are free from plagiarism. We also promise maximum confidentiality in all of our services.
Our support agents are available 24 hours a day 7 days a week and committed to providing you with the best customer experience. Get in touch whenever you need any assistance.
Try it now!
How it works?
Follow these simple steps to get your paper done
Place your order
Fill in the order form and provide all details of your assignment.
Proceed with the payment
Choose the payment system that suits you most.
Receive the final file
Once your paper is ready, we will email it to you.
Whether you have an urgent deadline or those that have time. You can take some time and relax after trusting us with your paper. We make sure that we conduct the academic writing services diligently.
Among the wide variety of academic work, essay writing is one of the simplest a student can ever come across. Usually, it is a task which students encounter and learn how to write whilst in high school. However, the case is quite different when it comes to university and college.
Are you looking for an online writing firm that can offer you reliable custom term paper writing help? Is your wish and desire to get someone who can guide you throughout the process of writing term papers? If yes, then you have come to the right place.
Coursework is essential for every student in order to graduate from college. However, most of it is deadline-centric, and that becomes a challenge to most learners. With the amount of work, learners are receiving every day, finding time to work on every task is not easy.
Online homework help services are an answer to every challenge that students go through. Despite the difference in the needs and levels of learning, all students can benefit from these services. Acemyhomework is one of the best online homework help service companies you can find on the internet.